Straight answer
Why did my Kalshi market settle that way?
Each single binary market settles under its own published written terms. To understand a surprising settlement, compare three things: the precise payout criterion, the designated source used to verify it, and the timing of determination and payout, which can differ from trading close.
The market title and close timestamp are not substitutes for the full rules. Read the terms and timeline for the exact market ticker before trading.
The three checks
Start with the exact binary market, not only the broader event. Work through these checks in order.
Payout criterion
The market title is a summary. Read the complete written condition for a Yes payout, including any threshold boundary, measurement period, time zone, calculation, and qualification. Then identify what the same terms imply for No. Another binary market in the same event may use a different criterion.
Designated verification source
Identify the publication, organization, dataset, or process named in the terms. Other reports may use different release times, methods, or revisions and need not be the source designated for settlement. Check which release or value the written terms specify.
Determination and payout timing
Separate trading close, outcome determination, and payout. Trading close ends order entry, but the designated information may arrive later and payout may follow after determination. Read the full timeline for the type of close, expected payout, and any early-close provision.
Read the complete rules before trading
Do not infer settlement from a short title, a chart, a news report, or another market in the event. Open the full rules and timeline for the ticker you may trade. Confirm the complete Yes condition, designated source, relevant timing, and any qualifications before deciding whether to place an order.
Organize the published terms with your AI
A member's AI can pull the published terms for a specific market ticker and organize the payout criterion, designated verification source, and timing into the three checks above. This helps with reading the terms; it does not determine an outcome, adjudicate a question, or override Kalshi.
Kalshi-published guidance
Use Kalshi's current help-center guidance for orientation, then read the published terms for the exact market ticker to identify its settlement criteria.
- Kalshi: Market Rules (opens in a new tab)
- Kalshi: Timeline and Payout (opens in a new tab)
- Kalshi: Request to Settle Market (opens in a new tab)
- Kalshi: Contact Kalshi Support (opens in a new tab)
Request to Settle is for an unresolved market. It is a request that Kalshi settle a market that has not yet resolved, not an appeal of a completed settlement. Direct other questions to Kalshi Support. A support request does not promise review, a changed outcome, or reversal.
Common questions
- Does the trading close time decide how a Kalshi market settles?
- Not by itself. The published payout criterion governs the binary outcome. Trading close marks the end of order entry under the market's timeline; the designated information, determination, and payout can occur later. Read both the full market rules and its timeline.
- What should I check if another source reports a different result?
- Check the designated verification source and method named in the published terms for the exact market ticker. Release timing, time zones, methodology, and revisions can differ across sources. An alternate report is not necessarily the source designated for settlement.
- Is Request to Settle an appeal of a completed settlement?
- No. Kalshi's Request to Settle feature is a request concerning a market that remains unresolved, not an appeal of a completed settlement. Direct other questions to Kalshi Support. Contacting support does not promise a review, change, or reversal.